The Future of Wildfires
From Carbon Sinks to Carbon Sources
As part of a series of articles designed to make my scientific research more accessible, select works have been translated by artificial intelligence that’s been trained using an array of my published works, including chapters from Panarchistic Architecture (2018). These translations have replaced specialist terminology and references with that which will be legible to non-specialists with an interest to learn more about the challenge of living with wildfire.
Wildfires are a defining force in shaping our environment. Their frequencies and intensities are rapidly changing due to a culmination of factors. Rising temperatures, prolonged droughts, and dry vegetation are creating a feedback loop of carbon emissions and accelerating climate change. Wildfires also influence air quality, weather patterns, and glacial stability, while turning forests from carbon sinks to sources. Adapting to an age in which wildfire is so prevelant that leading fire historian Stephen Pyne has dubbed it the ‘Pyrocene’ requires blending science, policy, and public education. This essay highlights how to navigate this new fire epoch, communities must confront the escalating and highly complex risks of living on an inherently flammable planet.
Extract
“Why Wildfires Are Increasing
The rise in wildfire activity isn’t random. It’s the result of several factors working together. Natural causes, like lightning, remain a significant trigger, especially in boreal forests. But human actions—such as clearing land for farming, urban expansion into fire-prone areas, and accidental ignitions — are increasingly responsible for devastating blazes, especially in tropical forests and regions near urban development.
Between 2001 and 2023, the loss of tree cover in boreal forests grew by an average of 3.6% annually, driven largely by wildfires. Globally, the area burned by forest fires increased by 5.4% per year from 2001 to 2019. These trends highlight how fire behaviour is shifting across different ecosystems and regions.
A Changing Climate Fuels the Fire
As was predicted, climate change is converging with other issues to create perfect (fire) storms. Rising temperatures, prolonged droughts, and reduced moisture in vegetation make it easier for fires to ignite and spread. In 2023, Canada experienced its worst wildfire season on modern record, with nearly 7.8 million hectares of forests burned. These fires released almost 3 billion tons of carbon dioxide (CO2) into the atmosphere, contributing to a 16% jump in global fire-related carbon emissions.
On average, wildfires now release between 5 and 8 billion tons of CO2 annually. This creates a dangerous feedback loop: wildfires release CO2, which worsens climate change, leading to even more wildfires. It’s a vicious cycle that’s referred to as "climate whiplash."
The Impact of Wildfires Beyond the Flames
Wildfires don’t just destroy trees and homes; they also have ripple effects on the environment. For example:
Air Quality: Wildfire smoke contains fine particles that can travel thousands of miles and have atmospheric effects.
Glaciers and Ice Sheets: Ash from wildfires can settle on glaciers, reducing their ability to reflect sunlight and accelerating melting.
Weather Patterns: Large fires can influence local weather, creating conditions that make lightning more likely and rainfall less so.
Despite these and other widespread impacts, public understanding of wildfire dynamics often lags behind. Simplistic or politically motivated narratives dominate media coverage, leaving many unaware of the full scope of wildfire consequences at local and global scales.”
Read ‘The Future of Wildfires’ in full here.