Method

3.1 Overview

Stemming from the findings of the Literature Review, this thesis seeks to dismantle disciplinary boundaries with intent to reconcile dichotomies and dualities found to be inherent within the predominant theoretical approaches that underpin current WUI architectural and urban codes, policies, and practices in response to wildland fires. There being no methodological precedent to follow within the wildfire and wildland urban interface sciences, the programme drew on the long and distinguished history of transdisciplinary research within the wider sciences, together with the arts and humanities. However, inspiring though the various works reviewed were, none provided of a methodology sufficiently integrative to accommodate for the broad bandwidth of disciplines to be examined within the study, and their epistemological and the axiological variances. Therefore, the decision was taken to design an a posteriori inductive study, which employing both established and experimental mixed qualitative research methods, aligned, sensu Bachelard, to a principally constructivist epistemology.

Creswell’s recommendations for the pursuit of qualitative research (2014) formed the underlying basis of the research design. Thus, initially, the research plan was not tightly prescribed and the over-arching data assembly design pyramidal in its form; the outcomes of the provisional enquiries guided the emergent programme and data from multiple sources concurrently informed development; the combined processes thereof enabled the identification of patterns, categories, and themes, therein a theoretical framework; data assembly, analysis, and synthesis were ongoing throughout, with research questions, and the hypotheses to which they relate, evolving over time; reflectivity was integral to every stage of hypothesis inquiry and development, and in particular whereupon findings were unexpected and/or controversial; and data were subjected to multiple steps of analysis, as were the concepts and conclusions drawn therefrom. While, principally an inductive programme, deductive thinking was applied to the analysis of scientific data, such for example as how climate, and in turn weather and seasonality, biomass composition and density, topography, and human populations have, do, and may combine to impact upon regional fire regimes and the WUI communities as reside therein.

3.2 Data Assembly, Analyses, and Synthesis

Disciplinary variances in the use of terminology and its interpretation, and of methodologies and their affiliated metrics, and of the relative significance attached to the findings extrapolated therefrom, necessitated data assembly, analysis and synthesis protocols be designed to enable the attainment of a complex picture of the field of enquiry. In particular, why and how researchers and practitioners that worked to similar, if not the same overall stated aims [i.e. creation of policy, codes, and/or practice that enables the continued human habitation of wildfire-prone territories] arrived at qualitatively diverse, and at times theoretically and/or technically conflicting conclusions. That knowledge gaps existed was never in question, for, as reflected in the opening chapter quote, the sum thereof was so great as for several prominent wildfire scientists to assert there a missing “industry” (Smith et al, 2016). Beyond the scope of this, or indeed any one thesis to identify and thereon address those gaps in their entirety, data from across the disciplines was triangulated such that the foremost significant gaps as relate to the research programme and its reconciliatory aims could be identified and assessed.

Data assembly followed a three-phase process, wherein the conclusions born of the first informed the second, and those of the second the third. Each phase was, in turn, broken into sub-phases, the focus of which was answering a set of questions [22] ascribed thereto. The first phase sought to establish whether ecological systems exhibit resilience to natural hazards, together with possible natural hazard trajectories, and the foremost relevant theories as relate thereto. Thereafter, the differentials in theories of ecological and urban resilience were examined, and the question of whether the processes that enable resilience in ecological systems may be applied to architecture and urban design, and if so, which schools of thought embed potentially synergistic approaches. Upon triangulation of the first-phase findings, provisional paradigmatic parameters were noted. The second research phase sought to establish which hazard category presents the most compelling potentialities, as well as connections between ecological, social, architectural, and urban issues, and how emerging technologies and their applications may influence future socio-ecological systems. Thereon, the behaviour of wildfire in both wildlands and the wildland urban interface throughout time and space, and at both the human and geological scale was examined. Particular attention was paid to how wildfire frequencies, intensities, and severities shift in relation to changing local, regional, and global environmental and social conditions. Upon triangulation of the second-phase findings the paradigmatic parameters established at the end of the first-phase were re-evaluated and refined. The third phase sought to yet further establish how and why humanity’s relationship with both wild and cultivated fire has changed over time, and how shifts in that relationship have impacted upon wildfire and WUI policy, codes, and practice. Thereafter, the sum of the findings and extrapolations therefrom were reviewed and the conclusions applied to the authoring of the reconciliation in the form of the new wildland urban interface paradigm and its possible applications to architecture, urban design, and building codes. Methods used in the analysis of data included memoing and reflective notes, codification, systems mapping and visual modelling, and in particular in regard of informatic and material flows, metaphor, and thematic and narrative development [23].

Though beyond the scope of the PhD programme to test the various hypotheses in real-world wildfire scenarios [24], by means of subjecting the research and its outputs against rigorous standards, myriad tenets thereof were regularly presented in academic, industry, and public presentations, lectures, speeches, workshops, collaborative in vitro and in natura laboratories, peer-to-peer conversations, and publications worldwide [See Appendix items 4 – 7]. In the process, various methodologies were utilised, including, (sensu Kurt Lewin, 1946), action research, such that the findings could be exposed to multiple disciplinary perspectives and feedback.

The research programme’s bottom-up approach to reconciling human and non-human systems at the interface of the ‘wild’ and ‘urban’, underpinned the decision to organise the findings, discussions, and their theoretical and conceptual derivatives thematically in the thesis, starting with wildfire, it being foremost a chemical reaction, as scientific phenomenon. Thereafter, the spatiotemporal scale at which wildfire is interrogated is expanded by means of illuminating how and why wildfire has, does, and may behave both within and beyond the study region. In the first instance, principally pre- and non-anthropogenic influencers of wildfire frequencies, intensities, severities, and behaviours are discussed. Thereon, the conversation expands to integrate the impact of humans on wildfire, and vice versa. Underpinning the imperative thereof is the foundational role of fire within human development past, present, and possible future, together with the implications of the fact we – a sub- species of the genus Homo – have become a dominant driver of wildfire occurrence worldwide. Whereas, commonplace is acceptance of many of the assumptions found to be inherent in existing Western architectural and urban resilience philosophy, thereon practice, including, but not limited to that which is led by the Pragmatic view that all as has not yet been ascribed a purpose ought to be swept aside [25], or led by the Existentialist perspective that reality is “a personal pursuit or quest loaded with choice” (University of Warwick, 2015), this thesis is organised to reflect a paradigm built anew from the scientific ground upwards. However, in recognition of the fact that psychological, philosophical, and political precepts imbue bias in both personal and collective interpretation of external events, such that issues of hermeneutic significance are made apparent, the notably differentiated histories of the disciplines that have, historically, shaped wildfire, and in turn WUI policies, codes, and practice are discussed in detail. Having established the foremost fundamental areas of disciplinary divergence and convergence of thought and action, the discussion moves to the proposed means of theoretical and technical reconciliation. Drawing on the potentialities of recent, emerging, and possible near-to-medium term scientific and technological breakthroughs, several speculative research techniques are engaged, including forecasting, foresight, fictional futures, post normal science, speculative design, design fiction, and flash fiction [26]. Whereupon describing original theoretical and technical concepts, standardized nomenclature technique has been used to create new terminology, with definitions provided upon first instance of use. There is an exception thereto, that being whereupon a term, usually a hapax legomenon [27], has been coined and utilised in a heading in the context of a word play on the title of a tome and/or hypothesis of relevance to the thesis and its contents.

3.3 Case Studies: Past, Present, and Possible Future

Their intent that of exploring how the low, mixed, and high-severity fire regimes have, do, and may become manifest in wild, wildland urban interface, and urban lands, case studies are distributed throughout the body of the thesis. The studies fall into two formats: a 5-part series, which interspersed throughout the chapters, examines the past, present, and possible future of the sites of three of the largest wildfire complexes of the western U.S. of the past three decades; and a chapter [5] that compares and contrasts data from both historical and contemporary wildland, WUI, and urban fires across two territories [western U.S., and London, UK] in a first-of-its-kind research endeavour which is designed to illuminate parallels between former and latter, together with such risks and opportunities as may be inherent therein.

The 5-part case study series starts with a discussion of the Yellowstone fire complex of 1988, and the southern California fire complexes of 2003, and 2007. In part #1, found in Chapter 4, the regional historical fire regimes and wildfire policy histories are documented, as are the meteorological and ecological conditions that preceded the fire complexes, together with an account of the causes of ignition and spread, and the intensities, severities, behaviours, and ecological legacies. In part #2, found in Chapter 6, the discussion expands to examine how the fire complexes impacted on the wildland urban interface and intermix, including the federal response; loss and damage to properties and infrastructure; human impacts, including loss of life and livelihoods; press and media coverage; political and policy legacies, and post-fire hazards. Further data on these fire complexes are discussed in the wider body of the thesis, which, together with the regional climate, fire regime, and environmental and social trajectories, inform the latter three parts of the 5-part series. Points of departure from past and present to possible wildland urban interface and intermix future, Parts #3, #4, and #5 explore three qualitatively distinct firescapes, each of which is bespoke to the fire ecology, therein fire regime of its respective case study region – the proposed reconciliation between regional human and non-human systems. Part #3 presents the firescapes through the medium of scenarios, Part #4 through flash fictions, and Part #5 through speculative design in the form of building codes. The 5-part series has been designed such that in all, or in part, it can be extrapolated and used as a stand-alone tool in workshops and other follow-on post-PhD research and development activities.

Drawing not merely on data spanning different disciplines, but different continents and centuries, the case study documented in Chapter 5 drew on a yet wider range of analysis, synthesis, and speculation methods. In some instances, these methods identify issues that could be interrogated through empirical testing, but in most instances the discussion revolves around that which, though compelling, involving complex and constantly changing variables, is beyond the scope of current theoretical and computing modelling and laboratory techniques. Though, the chapter’s contents have been presented as a continuous stream of conversation, as with they of the 5-part series, they have been structured such that elements can be extracted for use in presentations, publications, podcasts, and other media through which the research and its outputs are communicated to audiences academic, commercial, and public.

3.4 Summary

“we shall be justified in speaking of an unconscious of the scientific mind – of the heterogeneous nature of certain concepts, and we shall see converging in our study of any particular phenomenon, convictions that have been formed in the most varied fields”. Bachelard, 1977.

Treading an unprecedented transdisciplinary research path through data of wide-ranging description, interpretation, origin, and age, in an effort to reconcile that which, for the sum of centuries, has been seemingly irreconcilable, was a task as complex as it was challenging. When so many were the disciplines under interrogation, so many, and at times conflicting their perspectives, so rapid the pace of environmental and social change both within and beyond the study regions, and so profound the implications should the more extreme climate trajectories come to pass, that many were the data assembly, analysis, and synthesis decisions made. The programme and its resultant thesis are the sum of diverse research methods, including objective accounts, case studies, process models, metaphors and analogies, comparative tables, diagrams, and speculative narratives, each of which stems from the findings of an exhaustive literature review, extensive feedback from ongoing peer-to-peer and public engagements, and copious reflection on the findings and their significance. The aim that of addressing at least some of the gaping knowledge gaps made apparent by recent and emerging insights into the physical nature of the phenomena of fire in socio-ecological systems, and more specifically, at the boundary thereof, the thesis is but one of what need be many steps towards the creation of an ‘industry’ as is fit for current, let alone future WUI purpose.

Footnotes

[22] Listed in full in Appendix Item #1

[23] Details of use of analyses methods are provided in Appendix Item #2

[24]  In the interim between the viva and minor edits submission, meetings commenced with peers from fields including WUI planning and policy to create an in-field research programme in one of the most wildfire-prone regions of Northern America.

[25] The logic therein being that the absence of the quantified and/or qualified value of a thing or phenomena renders not that thing or phenomena to be necessarily ‘value-less’, and especially within and of the Earth Sciences, they being fields in which new and often unexpected discoveries are illuminating previously unseen connections, and more broadly, relationships between the innumerable components of the planet’s many systems.

[26] Details of the speculative research techniques used are provided in Appendix Item #3

[27] In reference to a term used just once within the thesis.

Continue to Chapter 4 here.

The thesis is also available in PDF format, downloadable in several parts on Academia and Researchgate.

Note that figures have been removed from the digital version hosted on this site, but are included in the PDFs available at the links above.

Citation: Sterry, M. L., (2018) Panarchistic Architecture: Building Wildland-Urban Interface Resilience to Wildfire through Design Thinking, Practice and Building Codes Modelled on Ecological Systems Theory. PhD Thesis, Advanced Virtual and Technological Architecture Research [AVATAR] group, University of Greenwich, London.