Appendix Item [3]

Speculative Design and Research Practice

Forecasting, foresight, and fictional futures provide of various methods by which issues of uncertainty are interrogated, as broadly described as follows:

Forecasting is by far the lesser used of the three future-thinking approaches, for its application is appropriate only whereupon it is reasonable to make assumptions, therein extrapolations as relate to the overall context, both environmental and social, to which its outputs apply, i.e. near-future scenarios [<10y] that are built on scientific consensus. Within this thesis, the primary application thereof is within the written narratives of chapter discussions and conclusions as relate to imminent trends as may be anticipated in consequence of current scientific, technological, and/or socio- political developments.

Foresight involves developing a diverse range of scenarios that accommodate for a spectrum of future environmental and social possibilities. While foresight tools are manifold, the foremost applied within and of this thesis is scenario planning, which involves the creation of “stories about how the future might unfold” (The Economist, 2008, online). Described by Peter Schwartz as forming “a method for articulating the different pathways that might exist” (Ibidem), scenario planning is particularly useful whereupon the events as described are considered to be black swans, sensu Nassim Taleb when he states the necessity to be wary of ‘Platonicity’, that being “the tendency to mistake the map for the territory, to focus on pure and well-defined “forms” whether objects, like triangles, or social notions, like utopias, even nationalities” (Taleb, 2010, p. xxix).

Fictional Futures is an overarching term for a fast-expanding assortment of speculative techniques and approaches that explore scenarios that deal with environmental and social uncertainties so extreme as to challenge ontological precepts. Interrogating multiple spheres of causation and the consequences thereof, fictional futures are commonly used whereupon considering medium to long-term possibilities of varying levels of probability [25y>]. Within and of this thesis, methods as fall within this category are drawn from the domains of design research and creative writing, as listed over-page.

Post Normal Science

Displacing the dichotomies inherent in reductionist scientific approaches, post normal science harnesses insights from “extended peer communities” (Funtowicz and Ravetz, 1993, p. 739) such that the dynamism, complexities, and emergent nature of socio- ecological systems can be interrogated on “the assumptions of unpredictability, incomplete control, and a plurality of legitimate perspectives” (Ibidem). Particularly suited to research spanning broad spatiotemporal dimensions, this process-orientated science acknowledges the significance of “the historical dimension”, such that “reflection on humanity’s past and future, is becoming an integral part of a scientific characterization of Nature” (Ibidem, p. 740). Concerned with the “comprehension or management of an inherently complex reality” (Ibidem, p. 744), post normal science is not consumed by the acquisition of individuals facts, therein quantitative data, as is classically associated with scientific endeavour of the post Newton era (Funtowicz and Ravetz, 2003). Its precepts echo those of earlier critiques of the ‘normal’ scientific method, and the wider risks of reductionism, as for example was highlighted in Abraham Flexner’s essay “The Usefulness of Useless Knowledge”, which highlighted how some of the most profound developments in “the whole history of science”, evolved from “useless theoretical work” (Flexner, 1939, p. 545) of which the intent is “disentangling the riddles of the universe”, (Ibidem, p. 546).

Speculative Design

Setting aside the inherent assumptions in singular future narratives, such as the notion that ‘by year x the global population will be y, of which z will live in cities’, like post normal science, speculative design resides within a world of “what if?” scenarios that explore how design practice and the physical and systemic outputs thereof may, for better or for worse, impact upon the future. Often provocative, it deals with possible, plausible, probable, and preferable futures across a bandwidth of trajectories as may extend from utopia to dystopia (Bland and Westlake, 2013; Kolehmainen, 2016).

Design Fiction

In the words of Bruce Stirling, “Design fiction doesn't tell stories -- instead, it designs prototypes that imply a changed world. "Suspending disbelief" means that design fiction has an ethics.” (Stirling, 2013, online). Exploring potentialities not realities, design fiction, like speculative design, is a lens through which design research and practice can shine a light on the “little weaknesses in the Emperor’s New Clothes”, (Ibidem). However, the method is not merely one of critique, but of providing insight into alternative futures in which design can help solve social and/or environmental challenges. Within and of this thesis, its use mirrors that of the authors H. G. Wells and Arthur C. Clarke, wherein design concepts are not iterated in image, but in writing, together with their possible applications, in flash fictions, such that “a more fully realized near future world” may be envisioned (Bleecker, 2009).

Flash Fiction

The foremost succinct of the fiction formats, flash fiction, of which the length is typically 100 to 500 words, forces the author to focus their narrative in such fashion as strips away all but the bare bones of a story. An experimental method, still emerging within and across the future thinking professions, its appeal lies in part in the creative challenge of conveying an idea with so few words.

Collectively, the above constitute a means by which to explore possible future WUI firescapes through the narration of stories and the creation of analogue devices, which may both inform and enrich those stories. In each instance, the above formats were chosen after a period of both research and experimentation with creative writing methodologies.

Continue to Appendix Item #4 here.

The thesis is also available in PDF format, downloadable in several parts on Academia and Researchgate.

Note that figures have been removed from the digital version hosted on this site, but are included in the PDFs available at the links above.

Citation: Sterry, M. L., (2018) Panarchistic Architecture: Building Wildland-Urban Interface Resilience to Wildfire through Design Thinking, Practice and Building Codes Modelled on Ecological Systems Theory. PhD Thesis, Advanced Virtual and Technological Architecture Research [AVATAR] group, University of Greenwich, London.